This is part of the labels / documentation for <a href='http://jcm.chooseclimate.org'>Java Climate Model</a><hr/>

#sresdemo		¨dem oldJCM4		§<H3><I>Sorry, Automatic Demonstration Scripts are NOT working </I></h3>
  due to layout changes in latest version.
  A new layout-independent script system is under construction.
  If you really need the demos you can   <li><a href="../tech/download.html">download the September 02 Version</a>
  </center><hr>
  <input type="button" value="start SRES demo" onclick="myapplet.playfile('demo/sres.txt');" >
  <input type="button" value="stop" onclick="myapplet.stop();" >

  The demo wizard cycles through the six SRES scenarios, showing in turn:   <li>CO2 emissions (regional and global)   <li>Other gases / F-gases   <li>Radiative forcing / Temperature,    <li>Regional temperature / Sea-level   <li>Population / Per-capita emissions  <li>GDP percapita / Energy percapita

  Click the button to stop the demo and explore for yourself.

#sres		¨oldJCM4		§This module holds the data for future emissions scenarios.  This module is currently passive, acting as a store for data loaded by @loaddata The linear interpolation routines are called by other modules as needed.
  £§iobinfo ££aboutsres <hr>See also @aboutsres, @aboutregions

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Old info to be updated:

 @sres affects several parts of the model ( depending on options in the @emitmenu, @distribmenu, and @othgasemit).   <li>Population, GDP and Energy (@people)   <li>Regional CO2 emissions and abatement (@regshares)   <li>Land use change CO2 emissions (@carboncycle)  <li> Other gases & aerosol emissions (@oghga)

Regional emissions are affected by @mitigation and @sres modules. @regshares module calculates the distribution, but doesn't affect the total.

#sresmenu		¨oldJCM4 addJCM5 oldJCM4		§SRES will affect global CO2 emissions only if the £`nopolicy option is selected from the @emitmenu
  The choice of scenario also affects:<li>Socioeconomic data (@people)<li>The baseline for calculating @abate<li>The emissions of other gases (see @othgasemit)<li> The SRES option in @distribution.
  <hr>For more explanation,  see @aboutsres

#aboutsres		¨oldJCM4		§££sresintro ££srestable ££sresa1 ££sresb1 ££sresa2 ££sresb2 ££sresdriving ££sresclimate ££sresasbaseline ££sresdemo

#sresintro		¨oldJCM4		§The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change "Special Report on Emissions Scenarios" (SRES) explored pathways of future greenhouse gas emissions, derived from self-consistent sets of assumptions about energy use, population growth, economic development, and other factors. These considered a variety of possible "world-views", but explicitly exclude any global policy to reduce emissions to avoid climate change.

From SRES, six illustrative "marker" scenarios were selected for use in the climate projections of the IPCC Third Assessment Report. These are described below, followed by discussion of driving forces, climate impacts, and related topics.   <li>See also @sres

#srestable		¨oldJCM4		§<table border=2> <tr><td></td><td align=center> Global integration </td> <td align=center> <font size=-1>Regionalism </font></td></tr><tr><td align=center rowspan=3> Economic emphasis </td> <td align=center>A1B
<font color=red bold>B</font>alanced energy</a></td><td align=center rowspan=3>A2</td></tr><tr><td align=center> A1FI
<font color=red bold>F</font>ossil-fuel <font color=red bold>I</font>ntensive</a></td> </tr><tr><td align=center>A1T
high-<font color=red bold>T</font>ech renewables </a></td></tr><tr><td align=center width=25%>Environ-mental emphasis </td> <td align=center width=50%>B1</td><td align=center width=25%>B2</td></tr></table>

#sresa1		¨oldJCM4		§The A1 scenarios all describe a future world  of very <b>rapid economic growth</b> and global population that peaks in  mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new  and more efficient technologies.  Major underlying themes are convergence  among regions, capacity building, and increased cultural and social interactions,  with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income.

   The difference between the A1FI, A1B, A1T and scenarios is mainly in the source of energy used to drive this expanding economy.  <li> A1FI: <b>Fossil-fuel Intensive</b>, coal, oil, and gas continue to dominate the energy supply for the forseeable future.  <li> A1B: <b>Balance</b> between fossil fuels and other energy sources  <li> A1T: emphasis on new <b>Technology</b> using renewable energy rather than fossil fuel.

#sresa2		¨oldJCM4		§The A2 scenario describes a very heterogeneous world.
          The underlying theme is <b>self-reliance</b> and preservation of local identities. Fertility patterns across regions converge very slowly, which results in continuously<b> increasing global population</b>. Economic
  development is primarily regionally oriented and per capita economic growth and technological change are more <b>fragmented</b> and <b>slower</b> than in other storylines.

#sresb1		¨oldJCM4		§The B1 storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with the same global population that peaks in mid-century
  and declines thereafter, as in the A1 storyline, but with rapid changes in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity, and the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but without additional climate initiatives.

#sresb2		¨oldJCM4		§The B2 storyline and scenario family describes a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability. It is a world with continuously increasing global population at a rate lower than A2, intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid and more diverse technological change than in the B1 and A1 storylines. While the scenario is also oriented toward environmental protection and social equity, it focuses on local and regional levels.

#sresdriving		¨oldJCM4		§The regional emissions/socioeconomic data shown in JCM regional plots helps to reveal some of the driving forces behind the SRES scenarios. First, choose "SRES no-climate-policy scenarios" from the "mitigation" menu (top panel), then choose CO2 emissions, population, GDP or energy from the "what" and/or "per" menus on a regional plot, and compare scenarios with the SRES menu (top panel).

For example, scenarios A1B, A1FI, A1T and B1 all have the same population, rising initially, but falling later this century, whilst for A2 and B2 the population, and consequent CO2 emissions, continue to rise in 2100. The implication is that global convergence of wealth in the A1/B1 group (look at the GDP data) helps to reduce population growth, and hence emissions.

The difference between A1B, A1T and A1FI emissions, is therefore mainly related to energy use.
  The energy data here refers to secondary energy, such as electricity, also including energy from traditional biomass sources (fuelwood) which is higher in developing countries.
  So the ratio energy/emissions tells you about the carbon "efficiency" of energy production, whilst GDP/energy might indicate more about the economic "efficiency" of its application.

See also: distribplot panel, people module

#sresclimate		¨oldJCM4		§Considering the temperature rise by 2100 (@glotempplot panel), the "hottest" scenario is A1FI, followed by A2, A1B, B2, A1T, and B1 is the "coolest". However, in the A1B and A1T  fossil CO2 emissions are falling by 2100, whereas in A2 and B2 they are still rising, implying that climate impacts would be greater during the following century.

The SRES also specifies other factors which influence climate change. For example, in scenarios A1FI, B1 and B2, CO2 emissions from land-use change drop below zero (implying net reforestation).
  ¤adju (You can see this on the @atco2plot : drag the y-axis near the origin, to move it up)

Scenario A2 also has relatively higher sulphate emissions than A1FI (this causes local cooling). In scenario B1, the emissions of methane and HFCs are also much lower. See @othgasplot, @radforplot

You can check the correspondence of the predictions from this model, with data published in IPCC-TAR-WG1 SRES appendix, shown as small circles superimposed on the plots (expert level). See @compareipcc

The 100-year time-frame of the SRES scenarios is too short to give a meaningful view of the effect on some slower climate processes, especially sea-level rise. In this model the scenarios are extended simply by assuming constant emissions after 2100. This is for transparency and is not intended as a prediction.  See @time, @inertia

#sresasbaseline		¨oldJCM4		§SRES scenarios, which assume no climate policy, provide a useful set of baselines for comparison with stabilisation scenarios, and to calculate  the required mitigation effort.   <li>This is the principle behind the @abate curves in @distribplot, @costsplot.  <li>The regional distribution of emissions under SRES may also be used as an option for @distribution.   <li>The SRES projections for emissions other greenhouse gases may be combined with CO2 stabilisation scenarios (as in IPCC-TAR Synthesis report Q6). See  @othgasemit, @ipccothgas

¤adju Note, for these reasons, the @sresmenu remains available, even when the CO2 emissions are determined by other options from @emitmenu.

However, it may be considered unrealistic to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, without changing other underlying socioeconomic projections which are also part of the SRES scenarios. Therefore IPCC has begun to review more complex mitigation scenarios, which still aim to reach specific CO2 stabilisation levels, but must also consider socioeconomic factors consistent with the original SRES storylines. The first stage of this "post-SRES" process is described in IPCCTAR WG3 Chap2.

These scenarios may help us to calculate the required mitigation effort, considering not only the difference in emissions, but also the interactive feedbacks with economic growth, population and technology development.
  <hr>  <li>Note also @whobau  <li>See also @aboutsres, @stabilisation

#a1b		¨oldJCM4		§£§sresA1

#a1t		¨oldJCM4		§See @sresA1

#a1f		¨oldJCM4		§See @sresA1

#a2		¨oldJCM4		§See @sresA2

#b1		¨oldJCM4		§See @sresB1

#b2		¨oldJCM4		§See @sresB2

#is92a		¨oldJCM4		§This is an older mid-range scenario from the IPCC second assessment report (SAR). For comparison, IPCC-TAR also has some data for this scenario, which is incorporated in JCM.

#tgcia450		¨oldJCM4		§This is an emissions scenario including all gases, leading to stabilisation of CO2 concentration at around 450ppmv (see @stabconcdoc). It was proposed by Swart et al (2001) to fill the gap at the low end of the range of GCM projections.